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Probability ranking is a new national ranking system that compares countries' Olympic performances objectively while adjusting for differences in population.   This promises to make the Olympic Games into a more fun and exciting competition at the national level.

 

The new rankings are based upon the Population-Adjusted Probability Index U,  a number that directly quantifies the degree to which a country's Olympic performance gives evidence for sports ability and achievement.  Specifically, U measures the improbability that a country of a given population would win as many medals as it has, or more medals, in the simple model that all people in competitive countries worldwide have equal sports capabilities. 

 

For the Paris 2024 Olympic Games, a complete compilation of national U-ranking, will be published here day-by-day starting on July 26, 2024 when the Games begin . 

 

Below are the probability rankings for the past 3 Olympic Games.  Details are provided in separate tabs 

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