Probability ranking is a new, more meaningful way to rank countries in the Olympic Games while adjusting for population.  It promises to make the Olympic competition more exciting and interesting at the national level.  Unlike simple medal-counts, which are always topped by the largest-population countries, or Olympic medals-per-capita (MPC) rankings, which are invariably topped by the smallest-population medal-winners, probability ranking highlights the best performers across the wide range of national populations.  It does this by ranking according to the Probability Index U, which has a simple meaning: U measures the improbability that a country of a given population would win as many medals as it has, or more medals, if all people in competitive countries worldwide had equal medal-winning capabilities.​

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The paper Population-adjusted National Rankings in the Olympics by Robert C. Duncan and Andrew Parece was published in the peer-reviewed Journal of Sports Analytics on July 12, 2024, two weeks before the Paris Games started. The website posting the daily rankings during the Paris Olympics had over 30k unique visitors from over 170 countries (www.olympicnationalrankings.com) 

 

Before, during and after the Paris Olympics, the approach was covered by many media outlets, including:

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• New York Times (7/22): Which Country Will Win the Paris Olympics? Don’t Just Count the Medals

• New York Times (8/12): The U.S. Wasn’t the Most Successful Country at the Olympics

• The Guardian UK/US/Australia (8/9): Ranking the medal table by gold, total, or most medals per capita – who actually won at the Olympics?

• The Economist (7/24): Which Country Has the Most Olympic Medals?

• ABC Australia (7/30): The Olympics isn't fair, but it could be (podcast)

• ABC Australia (8/5): Researchers Argue for new, fairer Olympic Rankings

• Newsroom NZ (8/15): A fairer way to rank Olympic success – and it’s not per capita

• The New Daily Australia (8/12): Alternative Ranking of Paris Olympics Shows Australia on Top

• News.com Australia (8/12): Smaller Nations Shine in per capita Olympic Medal Count Dominance

• The Pinnacle Gazette (8/15): Hailing Olympic Glory With Unprecedented Medal Counts

• Ouest-France (7/31): Jugeant le classement général des JO illogique, ce scientifique crée un mode de calcul "plus juste"

• KBS World France (7/31): Quel est le pays le plus performant aux JO Paris 2024 ?

• FT1 France (8/3): JO 2024 : quel est ce tableau des médailles "plus équitable" que défendent deux chercheurs américains ?

• Courrier International France (8/1):  Paris 2024. Quel pays sort vainqueur des JO ? Compter les médailles ne suffit pas

• TAZ Germany (8/16):  Das Goldlöckchenmodell Normalerweise führt den Medaillenspiegel an, wer am meisten Goldmedaillen hat. Eine andere Betrachtung ist möglicherweise fairer

• Publico Portugal (8/12): Só o ouro, o total de medalhas ou a população: como medir o êxito olímpico?

 

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