Current rankings for the Paris 2024 Olympics are posted on the Home page. Here we give information about the Paris Olympics that are used to calculate the probability rankings.

There will be a total of 329 medal events in Paris with T = 1045 medals awarded. (Note that two bronze medals are awarded in all wrestling, boxing, judo and taekwondo events, with 30 men’s events and 23 women’s events and one mixed event, yielding a Games total of 385 bronze medals.) Due to Olympic entry quotas, the maximum number of medals that any single country could win is M = 560.

The table below gives a sport-by-sport breakdown of M for the Paris Games. Furthermore, this PDF is an Addendum to our JSA paper which fully explains how the M values are determined.

Values of U for daily rankings are found from eqn. (8) in our JSA paper. This depends upon s = national populations, and N = number of medals (g+s+b) won by each country so far. It also depends upon three numbers that are the same for all countries: T, M, and S. For the final rankings at the end of the Games,

T = 1045 and M = 560; but at the end of any given day during the Games both numbers are less, since only a fraction of all medals have been awarded. Determining M on every day during the Games requires adding up the quotas for all events which have happened so far, which requires some effort. Fortunately, there is an easier approximate way to do the ranking without knowing M. This uses the simpler index U_T given by eqn. (9) in the JSA paper. Anyone who is independently doing the ranking can save time by using this. The U_T index is given in the right-hand column of our daily postings.

Finally, S is the total population of all countries that have won medals in any summer Olympics. Note, that with Paris Day 8 medal wins for Dominica and Saint Lucia, Day 9 medal win for Cape Verde, and Day 15 medal win for Albania, S has increased by 3.688 million, from 7397.380 million to 7401.068 million.